859
AXNT20 KNHC 161055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will occur behind a cold front entering the
northwestern Gulf today, mainly west of 90W. Winds will briefly
reach gale force offshore of Veracruz this afternoon. Winds will
diminish from north to south tonight into Mon as the cold front
exits the basin and high pressure builds over the southeastern
United States.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A mixed cold and
stationary front that extends from 31N38W to 27N57W to 31N75W will
dissipate later today. Rough seas associated with this front will
expand farther south and east and produce very rough seas of 12 to
23 ft across areas north of 25N and east of 55W by late morning,
and north of 20N and east of 50W by Mon morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N03W and extends to
08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 01S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 04N and east of 23W, and
south of 05N and west of 40W.

...GULF OF Mexico...

Please refer to the Special Features section regarding information
on a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.

A cold front is moving through the north-central Gulf of Mexico,
producing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 86W
and 92W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted surrounding the
cold front, where locally rough seas are occurring. Farther south,
moderate to fresh SE winds are noted in the south-central and
southeastern Gulf ahead of the front. Winds are turning to the NW
in the northwestern Gulf behind the front.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will occur in the
north-central and northeastern Gulf this morning ahead of the
next cold front entering the northwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and rough seas will occur behind the front today,
mainly west of 90W. Winds will briefly reach gale force offshore
of Veracruz this afternoon. Winds will diminish from north to
south tonight into Mon as the cold front exits the basin and high
pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Looking
ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by midweek
and progress southeastward, leading to fresh to strong winds
across northern and western portions of the basin. Gale force
winds will be possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed,
and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night and Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extent of the monsoon trough extends through the
south-central Caribbean, otherwise, broad ridging covers the
basin. Near-gale force winds are occurring offshore of
northwestern Colombia, where seas to 11 ft are likely. Widespread
fresh E winds and rough seas are noted across the central and
eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds downwind of
Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage and through the Atlantic
Passages. Winds are pulsing to fresh speeds in the Gulf of
Honduras, otherwise, moderate E to SE winds prevail in the western
basin.

For the forecast, near-gale force winds and rough seas up to 11
ft will occur offshore of Colombia this morning. Fresh trade winds
and rough seas are expected across central and eastern portions
of the Caribbean through Mon morning as a strong pressure gradient
prevails between low pressure over northern Colombia and high
pressure in the central and western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds in the central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras,
through the Atlantic Passages and in the Windward Passage today.
Expect moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across
the basin this week, with locally strong winds mainly confined to
offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Significant Swell Event for the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N36W to 27N57W, and a stationary front
continues to 29N72W. Moderate N to E winds and rough to very
rough seas are occurring along and north of these fronts. Very
rough seas of 12 to 20 ft are likely north of 28N between 40W and
60W. Farther west, fresh to strong S winds are noted offshore of
Florida. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds prevail south of
25N, with locally strong trades east of the Windward Islands.
Rough seas in E swell prevail in this region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds and rough seas will
occur off the coast of Florida today as low pressure strengthens
over the southeastern United States. Strong winds will expand
farther east, impacting areas north of 28N and west of 60W through
tonight. A cold front associated with the low will move into the
waters later today, leading to fresh to locally strong NW to W
winds behind the front north of 28N and west of 70W. Winds will
diminish on Mon as the front moves eastward and eventually
dissipates. Elsewhere, a mixed cold and stationary front that
extends from 31N38W to 27N57W to 31N75W will dissipate later
today. Rough seas associated with this front will expand farther
south and east and produce rough seas across areas north of 23N by
late morning. Locally very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be
possible north of 27N and east of 58W this morning. Farther south,
fresh trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N
through the middle of the week, with locally strong winds pulsing
north of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage.

$$
ADAMS
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